An In-Depth Exploration of Crime Trends and Safety insights in Boston
By Kenichi Maeda
With a population of 675,647 (as of 2022), Boston is known as one of the largest cities in the United States.
What makes Boston “Boston” is nothing but its educational influence. It is home to many prestigious universities,
which attract numerous young people. Indeed, the median age of the population is 33.3 years old, much younger
than the U.S. median. Boston is also known for its diversity. Data shows that foreign-born population accounts for
27.6 % of the total.
In such an ever-changing city, you may have ever wondered “How safe is Boston?” When,
where, and what dangers lie ahead? Whether you are a long-time resident or a newcomer to the city,
this question is crucial for a safe and enjoyable life in Boston.
In this project, we will analyze Boston’s public safety data, and explore what kind of trends exist
and what kind of preparation we could make.
Boston
First, let us take a look at where Boston stands in terms of public safety. The 2013 Boston Marathon Bombings
shook Boston and the entire world, but generally everyone has the impression that Boston is a safe place.
How is it actually?
The left graph shows the chances of being a victim of a violent crime per 1,000 residents in major
U.S. cities, including Boston. All of them exceed the national median probably due to the fact that
they are all big cities and have so many people.
The following plot shows the same number for the state of Massachusetts. As you can imagine, the more suburban towns (e.g., Amherst and Dartmouth)
are safer. Boston is not necessarily a safe city in this category probably because it is the largest city in Massachusetts.
Crimes
Let’s narrow our focus to Boston only. The data presented below are from
crime incident
reports provided by the City of Boston. These reports record incidents and accidents handled by the Boston police,
and are publicly accessible. It is worth mentioning here that these reports include general duties and
accidents that the police deal with, such as property crimes, traffic accidents, child assistance, and more.
For the purpose of this project, I only included crimes that could happen to the general public (e.g., theft,
assault, etc.) and removed cases such as accidents, criminal investigations, and properties related crimes.
Below is a year-by-year breakdown on the number of crimes, showing that the numbers were high from 2016 to 2019,
but then dropped from 2020 to 2022. This decline can be explained by the Covid19 pandemic. As people refrained from going out,
the number of crimes dropped accordingly.
You should also see that the number of crimes turned slightly upward in 2023. Now that the pandemic is over, the number
of crimes is expected to increase again.
Let’s look at the number of crimes by crime type, and see if we still observe the trend.
Assaults
The number of assaults shows the same trend as the total number of crimes. Although the number fell during the pandemic,
it has been gradually increasing. Note that the number of crimes itself is also high.
Burglary
Interestingly, the number of burglary has been decreasing since 2016 and it is still following the trend even after the pandemic.
I do not know if there is any reason for this, but it is good news for us!
Harassment
The number of harassment cases has remained flat. There were numerous reports of increased harassment against specific
races and ethnicities throughout the U.S. during the pandemic. This might be the reason why we have not seen a decrease in the number
of crimes during the pandemic.
Trends
Knowing when crime is likely to occur is another important step to understanding Boston’s safety. Once you know when
crime is likely to occur, it becomes easier to take action.
Monthly Trends
First, monthly trends. The graph above shows the number of crimes per day over the span of a year from 2015 to 2024
(note that 2015 and 2024 only have the data for the second half of the year and the first half of the year respectively).
If I had to guess, I would say that the peak appears to be in the summer season around August and September. But the data
shows no particular trend, in other words, there are no particularly safe or dangerous seasons.
Weekly Trends
Next, let us take a look at the weekly trends. This graph shows the average number of crimes for each day of the week. All graphs are
flat, and again, there is no significant change. But if we had to say something, there is a slight increase on Fridays,
which might be due to the fact that it is the end of the week and people are more active.
Hourly Trends
Finally, here are the hourly trends. It makes sense that there are fewer crimes at night when everyone is in bed. I would
assume that the large spike at 12:00 p.m. is not simply due to a higher number of crimes, but rather because the police tend
to file cases at 12:00 p.m.
Do we see this trend in each of the crime cases?
Assaults
Although there are not so many crime cases, assaults occur at any hour of the day. Crimes are also observed from 1:00 a.m.
to 3:00 a.m. at night. It would be best to avoid going out at late night.
Thefts
This shows a big increase in the evening, which is probably correlated with the movement of people. As it is the end
of the day, people are more likely to be out, making them easy targets for crime. One must be careful when walking in
the city in the evening.
Vandalism
It might not be directly related to us, but we see that the number is high between 5:00 p.m. to 12:00 p.m. Again, it
is best avoid being out at night.
Areas
Finally, let’s look at where crime is most likely to occur. It is often said that there are security concerns in cities such
as Dorchester and Roxbury, but how is this really the case? Below is a map of the number of crimes per police districts. For
the purpose of visualization, I rescaled the highest and lowest number of crimes to 100 and 0 respectively.
Code
Location
A1
Downtown
A15
Charlestown
A7
East Boston
B2
Roxbury
B3
Mattapan
C6
South Boston
C11
Dorchester
D4
South End
D14
Brighton
E5
West Roxbury
E13
Jamaica Plain
E18
Hyde Park
In terms of the number of crimes, downtown and South End are red flags. The high population density makes it
unsurprising that the number of crimes is high these areas. As we move toward the suburbs, we see a decrease in the number of crimes.
Is there any correlation between crime types and areas? This time, the legend shows the actual number of crimes.
Assaults
In addition to downtown and South End, it is worth noticing that assaults happen frequently in Roxbury as well.
It is hard to avoid these areas, but you might want to at least avoid back alleys etc.
Thefts
This also occurs not only in the center of the city, but also in a wide range of neighborhoods, including Brighton,
South Boston, and Dorchester. It can be said that people are more likely to be victims in busy places than in residential
areas for this type of crime.
Harassment
While the number of crimes itself is not that high, it is noteworthy that it occurs in all areas to a similar degree.
It might be better to keep in mind that harassment can occur anywhere.
Conclusion
Boston cannot be considered a perfectly safe place due to its nature as a large city. In particular, we have seen thefts occur
frequently in the evenings when the streets get busy, especially in downtown. However, this is true for any city with a large
population. As long as you keep in mind obvious things, such as not geting caught off guard in a crowded area, not going out alone at
night, etc., Boston can be a great place for you!
